--- title: "Restaurant Operators Should Plan for Higher Prices in 2027" url: https://burnaze.com/article/2ef4521e-5550-4f85-825d-e5e0b0559d43 source: "Modern Restaurant Management" original_url: https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/restaurant-operators-should-plan-for-higher-prices-in-2027/ author: "Barbara Castiglia" category: "Restaurants" industry: "Restaurants" published: 2026-10-28T10:03:00.000Z modified: 2026-10-31T13:15:33.718Z image: https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/assets/media/2026/10/getty-images-LL7fEM_HIIY-unsplash-3-2-1024x682.jpg --- # Restaurant Operators Should Plan for Higher Prices in 2027 **TL;DR:** ArrowStream forecasts a 42.2% rise in chicken wing prices in 2027, and commodity food costs are expected to increase by 21% for wing-focused concepts. Restaurant operators are advised to plan for higher prices and consider menu flexibility to control costs. *By Barbara Castiglia, originally published in Modern Restaurant Management on 2026-10-28. [Read the original](https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/restaurant-operators-should-plan-for-higher-prices-in-2027/).* ## Key facts - Chicken wing prices expected to rise 42.2% in 2027 - 2027 commodity food costs to rise 21% for wing-focused concepts - Menu flexibility is key to controlling costs ## Story Ingredients that provided restaurant operators with their biggest food cost breaks this year are projected to become some of their biggest sources of price increases in 2027, according to forecasts from ArrowStream, a Buyers Edge Platform company, For example, chicken wing prices projected to decrease 23.7 percent in 2026 are expected to rise 42.2 percent in 2027 and liquid egg prices, expected to decline 71.4 percent, are expected to jump 44.8 percent next year. Chicken breast costs, forecasted to drop 27.4 percent in 2026, are expected to increase 21.3 percent in 2027, while cheese prices are anticipated to fall 13.4 percent this year before increasing 13.1 percent in 2027, pork belly prices projected to decrease 15.8 percent in 2026, will rise 11.5 percent next year. “The inflation pressure is shifting, and next year’s biggest increases may hit restaurants built around chicken and cheese,” said David Maloni, ArrowStream Senior Director of Commodities. ## Commodity price shifts In fact, Arrowstream’s September Restaurant Commodity Index projects 2027 commodity food costs to rise roughly 21 percent for wing-focused concepts, 8.7 percent for barbecue restaurants, 8.1 percent for fast food and 7.9 percent for pizza restaurants. Fast casual follows at 7.3 percent. By comparison, the steakhouse commodity basket is projected to remain essentially flat. “Beef can remain expensive without seeing the biggest additional increase,” he added. “What matters for an operator is which ingredients dominate the menu and where those prices are headed.” Menu items most vulnerable to commodity price swings next year could include chicken sandwiches, tenders, wings, bacon-heavy dishes, barbecue and cheese-heavy items, the data suggests. “And it’s important to remember that the exposure isn’t always limited to the main ingredient. A bacon cheeseburger, for example, puts beef, pork and dairy costs on the same plate,” said Maloni. “So thinking about a menu item collectively is essential.” ## Supply chain pressures Restaurant operators are getting squeezed by both the cost of the food and the cost of getting it to the kitchen, he explained. Taking beef as an example, several years of drought have reduced cattle supplies, while strong protein demand is keeping pressure on prices. “Rising energy and transportation costs have added another layer of expense. This is a situation of both internal and external forces coming together at once.” Transportation is part of the price of everything on the menu and every supply that comes through the door, Maloni noted. Higher diesel prices and freight rates can make a product more expensive even when its underlying commodity price hasn’t changed, making it incumbent on operators to watch fuel surcharges and delivery costs alongside the price of the food itself. This is a time when operators need to be as informed as possible, in both the short and long term, before making big decisions, Maloni said, adding that means menu flexibility matters. Before promoting, say, a lower-cost protein, look at where its price is headed and whether the dish will still deliver the margin you need. But switching proteins doesn’t necessarily mean escaping inflation as beef is likely to remain expensive over the next several months and high retail prices are showing signs of pushing some consumers toward chicken, he said, adding that then the hurdle is that tighter supplies could put upward pressure on chicken and pork prices this winter. ## Cost control strategies To control costs, Maloni recommends operators start with their own purchasing list to determine which products account for the most spending and what does the report say about where those individual markets are headed. “Then use that information to guide a specific decision, whether that’s a conversation with your supplier, a purchasing commitment or a menu adjustment. The value of a forecast is in the decision it helps you make.” While operators can’t control the commodity market, they can control how much of their business is exposed to it, Maloni advised. Start by identifying the ingredients that could put the most pressure on your margins in 2026 and then evaluate your options. Work to negotiate pricing where opportunities exist, adjust portions or recipes, and put more emphasis on dishes with stronger margins. You want to build those choices into the budget before higher costs arrive. Locking in prices can prove to be tricky, Maloni offered. “While a fixed price buys certainty it doesn’t guarantee savings. Locking in can make sense when the price, volume commitment and contract terms work for your business. But smaller operators may not have the purchasing volume to secure an attractive offer. The question is whether the agreement helps protect your margin at a price you can live with or doesn’t.” If an operator is considering raising prices, Maloni suggests comparing pricing with nearby alternatives and then looking carefully at the value you’re offering because it’s wiser to target increases where they’re needed rather than assuming every item needs the same adjustment. “While food costs explain why a price increase is needed, that doesn’t explain why a customer should pay it. Guests are managing their own rising expenses and that can mean different things in different places.” ## Entities - QSR (sector) - menu pricing (topic) - Modern Restaurant Management (publication) - Barbara Castiglia (person) - ArrowStream (company) - David Maloni (person) - Buyers Edge Platform (company) - commodity prices (topic) - cost control strategies (topic) - supply chain pressures (topic) --- Originally reported by Barbara Castiglia, Modern Restaurant Management (https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/restaurant-operators-should-plan-for-higher-prices-in-2027/). Summarized by Burnaze (https://burnaze.com/article/2ef4521e-5550-4f85-825d-e5e0b0559d43).