--- title: "Winter is Coming: Will Restaurants Survive?" url: https://burnaze.com/article/99091e80-e5f9-43ca-99cd-0c951325cdae source: "1851 Franchise" original_url: https://1851franchise.com/winter-is-coming-will-restaurants-survive-2714105 category: "Restaurants" industry: "Restaurants" published: 2020-10-20T19:14:33.000Z modified: 2026-11-01T02:28:00.879Z image: https://newimage.1851franchise.com/cdn-cgi/image/quality=85,format=webp,width=1280,height=720/story/featureImage/48a3abe6c04099f87aee65e80f11973e188.jpg --- # Winter is Coming: Will Restaurants Survive? **TL;DR:** A report by Gusto predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic and impending winter slowdown may erase two million job gains and $190 billion in economic activity in the US, with restaurants in colder states being particularly affected. The New York State Restaurant Association warns that up to two-thirds of the state's restaurants could permanently close by the end of the year without additional government aid. *originally published in 1851 Franchise on 2020-10-20. [Read the original](https://1851franchise.com/winter-is-coming-will-restaurants-survive-2714105).* ## Key facts - 2 million job gains at risk - $190 billion in economic activity impacted - 2/3 of NY restaurants may close ## Story **With outdoor dining providing a lifeline for on-premise-focused restaurants over the past seven months, restaurants in colder states are gearing up for a new set of challenges as winter approaches with no sign of an end to the COVID crisis in sight.** **New research from Gusto** **predicts that an impending winter slowdown has the potential to erase two million in job gains from September and August, or about $190 billion in economic activity, with the retail, leisure and hospitality industries impacted the most. More aggressive estimates show that job losses could be as high as 2.8 million.** **The summer job gains in the foodservice industry were largely due to outdoor dining. According to a** **new audit by the New York State Comptroller Office****, restaurant employment in New York City fell to about 91,000 jobs in April after reaching a record-high of 317,800 in 2019. However, the industry recovered to about 174,000 by August with the help of outdoor dining thanks to the city's** **Open Restaurants and Open Streets program****. The program allows many city blocks to close off to traffic to allow restaurants to expand outdoor dining. Mayor Bill de Blasio has since made that program permanent and** year-round**, and said the program has saved almost 100,000 jobs. ## Winter slowdown impact **Unfortunately, a vast majority of** **New York's hospitality businesses still couldn't afford to pay full rent in August****, suggesting that outdoor dining isn't a reliable safety net on its own. Gusto's report notes that other factors besides adjusting to outdoor dining — including the lifting of state and local shutdown orders — haven't contributed as much to the restaurant's economic recovery either.** **Now, according to Gusto’s research, mid-sized cities and smaller cities (with populations of 200,000 or less) will be affected the most by the colder weather. The report specifically predicts a looming crisis in the North, from New England to the Pacific Northwest, with some extension into the South. Markets where** the **average temperature drops to below 50 degrees by November, an area that represented about 45% of total private employment in March, are classified as "at risk."** **Cities such as** **Chicago****,** **Colorado** **and** **Washington, D.C.** **have already created programs or grants to help restaurants maintain outdoor dining in cold weather, but these efforts may not be enough to stem closures.** ## Consumer anxiety and safety **Not only is the impending cold weather going to be a challenge, so too is consumer anxiety about eating out at all.** **The CDC released a September report that found dining out increases COVID-19 risk more than other activities.** **To maintain some outdoor dining capacity, restaurants across the country are scrambling to add heaters, tents and other features (****including giant dining bubbles****) while also adding safety features to their indoor dining rooms.** **DoorDash's cold weather grants** **are available to help small restaurants winterize their establishments with equipment like heaters, tents and lighting. Some restaurants are getting more creative with their solutions —** **one restaurant in Maine added heated igloo tents****.** **These innovations may sustain some outdoor dining activity and keep employees working during the colder months, but it might not make a huge difference when it comes to the bottom line, especially since many of them are quite expensive. There is also the possibility that dine-in restrictions could return in the wake of rising COVID-19 cases, which are increasing as the** **U.S. risks a new infection peak****.** **The** **New York State Restaurant Association** **has warned that as many as two-thirds of the entire state's restaurants could permanently close by the end of the year without additional government aid. As the** second-largest **private-sector employer** **in the country, the restaurant industry's job losses have a significant impact on the general unemployment rate, which** **now stands at about eight percent,** **from about 14% in April. As the shift to colder weather starts in certain states, time will tell if that downward trend continues.** ## Entities - 1851 Franchise (publication) - Restaurants (sector) - restaurant industry (topic) - DoorDash (company) - Chicago (location) - Colorado (location) - covid-19 pandemic (topic) - Washington, D.C. (location) - CDC (regulator) - economic impact (topic) - job losses (topic) - New York State Comptroller Office (regulator) --- Originally reported by 1851 Franchise (https://1851franchise.com/winter-is-coming-will-restaurants-survive-2714105). Summarized by Burnaze (https://burnaze.com/article/99091e80-e5f9-43ca-99cd-0c951325cdae).