--- title: "McDonald's has low expectations for fast-food sector growth" url: https://burnaze.com/article/c3653c29-6911-44fc-b753-86e072176d76 source: "Restaurant Business" original_url: https://restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/mcdonalds-has-low-expectations-fast-food-sector-growth category: "Burger" industry: "Restaurants" segment: "Burger" published: 2026-09-28T13:17:22.000Z modified: 2026-10-31T14:43:42.212Z image: https://cdn.informaconnect.com/platform/files/public/2026-09/background/McDonald%27s%20drive-thru%20screens%20Maze.JPG?VersionId=3zCB.h7wx8CF_zjpeZg5Y..m9qOHbo10 --- # McDonald's has low expectations for fast-food sector growth **TL;DR:** McDonald's executives expressed low expectations for the fast-food sector's growth, citing flat industry traffic and elevated inflation. The company's CEO, Chris Kempczinski, and CFO, Ian Borden, discussed the challenges facing the industry, including over-development and declining demand. *originally published in Restaurant Business on 2026-09-28. [Read the original](https://restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/mcdonalds-has-low-expectations-fast-food-sector-growth).* ## Key facts - McDonald's expects flat industry traffic growth - Inflation will remain elevated - Quick-service traffic fell 3.5% ## Story Executives with fast-food chains hoping for relief from the low-traffic environment in the next few years did not get any encouraging words from McDonald’s executives last week. “We expect industry traffic growth in our wholly owned markets will be flat, while inflation will remain elevated,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said at the company’s Investor Day presentation last week. Kempczinski was talking about the company’s more developed markets, but he was in particular referring to the U.S. ## Industry growth concerns Ian Borden, the company’s CFO, said that the sector is developing locations faster than demand can support that development. “Traffic has been flat for the past several years now,” Borden said in an interview. “That’s partly because more capacity is being added in terms of new units than incremental customer demand, and I don’t think that’s going to change in the near-term.” Fast-food chains last year slowed their growth. Total unit count grew less than 1% in 2025, according to data from Technomic. Yet even that growth diluted what demand there had been. Sales in the quick-service sector as a whole grew just 2.5% last year, well under the 3.7% growth in menu price inflation last year. So yes, the sector served fewer customers last year. While many executives started 2026 hopeful for improvement, that hasn’t happened, as the war in Iran put immense pressure on gas prices, offsetting benefits from larger tax returns in the spring. Indeed, according to Revenue Management Services, quick-service traffic fell 3.5%, suggesting that, if anything, the environment is getting worse. Several chains have closed locations, even chains generating sales growth such as Starbucks. Bankruptcy filings among franchisees, such as Wendy’s, as well as larger brands have also cut some of the supply. Yet for each one of those concepts there are examples of coffee brands getting into bidding wars for open sites or chicken chains pushing more unit growth. And plenty of franchise brands keep pushing more growth on their operators, even when their own unit economics don’t back it all up. McDonald’s is one of the brands pushing that growth. The company has undertaken the most aggressive development program in decades over the past few years. The chain has opened more than 300 locations since the end of 2023, or 2.3% unit growth over that period. ## Demand and supply issues It’s not just supply, however. Demand has taken a hit for a number of reasons. The population isn’t growing as fast as it usually does and will likely start declining sometime in the next few years. Users of GLP-1 medications for weight loss may not be stopping their restaurant visits but they’re certainly cutting back. But fast-food chains have also had a price-value problem. Chains have raised prices in recent years to combat inflation and have seen profits cut in the process. But consumers remain convinced that restaurants are too expensive. Most comments on social media regarding McDonald’s presentation were related in some way to the chain’s pricing, something we see almost every time we post anything about a quick-service chain. Brands, in other words, need to keep focused on improving their competitiveness in the coming years and hope things get better. Much of McDonald’s “Next” program is designed to do that, by improving the way the restaurants operate while the company pushes more chicken and beverages to build sales. But the company is also working on more value offers to get more traffic. “Hopefully, over time, customer affordability improves, and you start seeing people spend more because obviously there’s a portion of the customer base that has moved out of the industry, particularly at the low-income level. “But I think our job is to face the reality of what we foresee and to make sure we can win in this environment,” said Borden. ## Entities - unit expansion (topic) - QSR (sector) - menu pricing (topic) - McDonald's (company) - Wendy's (company) - Starbucks (company) - Restaurant Business (publication) - Technomic (company) - industry growth (topic) - inflation (topic) - Chris Kempczinski (person) - Ian Borden (person) --- Originally reported by Restaurant Business (https://restaurantbusinessonline.com/financing/mcdonalds-has-low-expectations-fast-food-sector-growth). Summarized by Burnaze (https://burnaze.com/article/c3653c29-6911-44fc-b753-86e072176d76).