FIRST DRAFT LIVE: Newmark Capital Markets Head Chad Lavender Says CRE Debt Markets 'Almost Insatiable'

Things are not quite going as planned for the commercial real estate industry in 2026.

While many had hoped this year would bring inflation rate relief and cuts to close refinancing gaps, easing the pressure on the maturity wall, the Fed's decision Wednesday to hold rates, combined with growing global uncertainty, suggests that’s not happening any time soon.

The phrase “fix it in '26” has become the rallying cry for CRE, and each passing day seems to bring new challenges to the to-do list. But according to Chad Lavender, Newmark's president of capital markets in North America, what’s happening in the broader economy will not deter CRE from moving forward.

“The good thing about real estate is it’s such an optimistic industry, and everyone looks forward from an investment perspective,” he said on this week’s First Draft Live. “People are looking forward; people are optimistic about the future. We have $378B of dry powder raised to deploy into the market. People are trying to get active and put money to work.”

He said investors are more focused on what’s happening on their own block than in the broader economy, and many of them are seeing positive indicators, including record office rates in markets like Dallas, San Francisco and New York.

As for the maturity wall? Lavender said there’s a lot of capital looking for loan sales and acquisition opportunities, and he does not foresee a maturity wave actually “cresting and falling.”

“I think it will be more of the same, just constructive refinances, sales and workouts with lenders,” he said

There continues to be more liquidity on the debt fund side, he said, and the repo lending market is “very, very good” and can put out debt at attractive rates.

“The market’s being very reactionary, very constructive and almost insatiable from a debt perspective,” Lavender said.