How the Income Divide Is Shaping Restaurant Traffic and Guest Spend

The concept of the “average” restaurant guest is evolving due to a widening income divide, according to research from Revenue Management Solutions (RMS.) The findings suggest operators should consider differentiated pricing, promotions and menu options that reflect the different ways consumers are approaching restaurant spending.

RMS found nearly half of households earning $100,000 or more (48 percent) say they’re spending a bigger share of their income at restaurants than last year and ordering takeout more often, up 15 percent year over year, while households earning under $50,000 pulled back on casual dining and coffee runs, down 10 percent year over year.

Their data also shows an actual traffic decline of 3.5 percent, with net sales falling 0.6 percent after seven straight months of growth in addition to average prices increased by +2.6 percent, and items per transaction in negative territory (0.4 percent) year over year.

Traffic and sales trends

“Operators should take the recent traffic decline seriously, but we don’t see the data as evidence that consumers have stopped spending at restaurants,” said Richard Delvallée, RMS’s senior VP of consulting.“Instead, we’re seeing a more divided consumer, with spending patterns varying significantly by income, generation and occasion.”

Heading into 2027, operators should look closely at who is driving their traffic and check growth, where they are seeing consumers pull back, as well as the composition of the check, according to the data.

> Heading into 2027, operators should look closely at who is driving their traffic and check growth, where they are seeing consumers pull back, as well as the composition of the check.

“Getting consumers through the door is only part of the equation,” said Delvallée. “Operators can make more informed decisions about menu placement, bundles and add-on offerings by examining which items consumers continue to purchase and which they are dropping.”

Operators should continue watching broader economic factors that could influence restaurant demand, especially gas prices and consumer confidence, Delvallée recommends. These pressures, along with the widening income divide, make a deeper understanding of consumer behavior increasingly important as operators plan for 2027.

It’s difficult to put a precise timeline on how long that divide will last because it will depend on factors such as consumer confidence, employment, inflation and household costs, according to the reports.

“For now, there’s little in the data to suggest that the gap is closing, so rather than pricing and promoting to an ‘average guest,’ operators should segment their offers and messaging based on how different consumers are spending,” said Delvallée.

Income divide impact

Among households earning under $50,000, nearly half say they’ve visited fast casual (47 percent), casual eateries and coffee shops (48 percent) and full-service restaurants (46 percent) less often in the past month, and 56 percent have cut back on breakfast restaurant visits, according to RMS data. QSR is holding up better with this group, with only 29 percent visiting less, and 21 percent going more often.

Households earning over $100,000 tell a different story, with only about one in five cutting back on fast casual, casual eateries or full service. This suggests restaurants outside QSR that rely on lower-income guests are the most exposed, while QSR remains where price-sensitive consumers are holding on.

RMS is also seeing differences by generation, Delvallée pointed out. In Q2, 45 percent of Gen Z consumers said they visited QSRs more frequently, compared with 30 percent of Millennials, 17 percent of Gen X and 7 percent of Boomers, and 49 percent spending more of their disposable income on restaurants. Boomers are moving the other way, with 35 percent visiting QSRs less frequently and 39 percent spending less on restaurants. Recent analysis of Gen Z restaurant spending provides additional context on why this generation continues to matter.

Casual dining shows a similar pattern, with nearly one in four Gen Z and Millennial consumers planning to increase visits, while 43 percent of Boomers said they planned to visit less often.

Two other shifts are worth watching, Delvallée noted. Hybrid workers are leaning into QSR, with 37 percent planning to increase visits, and grocery stores are competing for meal occasions with 27 percent of overall respondents buying meals from grocery stores more often.

A clearer picture of where diners are making cuts is found in another report. Among the 33 percent of consumers spending less, 42 percent say they deliberately order less to save money. Dessert is the item most often dropped (20 percent), followed by appetizers and beverages (15 percent each). Many are also trading down, with 47 percent ordering less expensive items and 45 percent choosing less expensive restaurants.

Menu engineering strategies

“Operators’ own menu data will help them identify which attachments are declining and where they may be able to rebuild those purchases through menu engineering,” Delvallée said.

When it comes to traffic decline, RMS data saw several pressures on the consumer during the month, including elevated gas prices and declining consumer confidence. That said, Q2 consumer research shows that QSR remains an important part of consumers’ restaurant routines, and among lower-income households it’s holding up better than any other segment.

“The demand is still there, but brands are competing harder for the visits consumers do make,” said Delvallée. “Winning those guests back comes down to value, and consumers are defining value differently depending on their circumstances. Some want lower-priced options, while others continue to spend and are receptive to premium offerings. That’s why operators are focusing on menu strategy, pricing and promotions that give consumers choices at different price points.”

Rising gas prices are something drive-thru-heavy brands should be watching closely because transportation costs can influence both consumer confidence and the frequency of restaurant visits, Delvallée noted. In August, gas prices remained above $4 per gallon for much of the month, while consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in seven months. That came at the same time as a 3.5 percent decline in QSR traffic.

But higher gas prices don’t automatically mean consumers will stop using the drive-thru. Q2 research found that 73 percent of consumers use the drive-thru at least once a week, and 15 percent said they expect to increase their drive-thru usage.

“The bigger issue is whether higher transportation costs cause consumers to consolidate trips or become more selective about when they eat out,” said Delvallée. “That makes the value of the overall restaurant visit more important for operators. If consumers are going to make the trip, brands need to make the occasion worthwhile.”