Restaurant Industry Projected for $1.55 Trillion Sales in 2026: Trends and Outlook

The U.S. restaurant industry is projected to reach $1.55 trillion in sales in 2026, a 4.8% year-over-year increase, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry report.

The industry is a huge economic engine and is expected to create more than 100,000 new jobs (bringing the total to 15.8 million), but operators are bracing for another tough year. Consumers are watching their wallets, and cost pressures just won't let up.

Last year was particularly tough. Food costs ended up 38% higher than in 2019, and labor costs jumped 35% in that same time frame. Supply chain headaches, avian flu, and tariffs were also contributing factors.

A concerning 42% of operators said they weren't profitable in 2025, and 60% saw fewer customers walking through the door. Profit margins are razor-thin, with the average pretax income sitting at only 2.8% of sales for full-service spots and 4% for quick-service places.

To survive, most owners hiked up menu prices, cut deals with suppliers, trimmed their menus, and got a little creative with portion sizes.

The good news is that people still love going out to eat. A full 87% of adults enjoy hitting up restaurants, and 61% feel it's just an essential part of their lives. Even folks who are tight on cash are still grabbing takeout or dining out occasionally. However, more than four out of ten consumers admit they're visiting restaurants less often than a year ago, and value is now the name of the game. Over 80% of diners say promotions influence where they go, especially when it comes to delivery and takeout.