U.S. to Recover All Jobs Lost During Pandemic By Summer, Fitch Forecasts

According to Fitch Ratings, the U.S. labor market will fully recapture all jobs lost during the pandemic by the end of Q3 of 2022. This milestone highlights the historically strong economic recovery from COVID-19.

According to CNN, “Payrolls would need to grow by about 400,000 jobs per month to get back to pre-pandemic levels. The economy added 431,000 jobs in March, and Friday's jobs report is expected to show another 405,000 jobs were gained in April.”

The national unemployment rate is now 3.6%, down from a peak of 14.7% in April 2020. Before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5%.

The quick recovery — only two years after the major job losses in April 2020 — is in stark contrast to the six-plus years it took the job market to recover after the Great Recession.

“Thirteen states have recovered all job losses resulting from the pandemic. The state median jobs recovery rate is 89 percent, up eight percentage points from Q4 2021,” said Olu Sonola, Head of U.S. Regional Economics. “Hawaii and Louisiana are the only states to not have recovered at least 70 percent of all jobs lost during the pandemic.”

The states that have fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels are Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Montana, South Dakota, Utah and Colorado.