Inside the Early Phases of Black Rock’s 1,000-Store Growth Journey

While Black Rock Coffee Bar has had an eventful run since going public last fall, the truth remains it’s a challenger brand in a tide of beverage growth. It closed Q1—its 13 consecutive positive same-store sales period at 5.2 percent (14.4 percent two-year stack)—with 190 locations after debuting nine across Colorado, Texas, Arizona, and Oregon. It’s planning 36 for the full calendar. Dutch Bros today touts about 1,120 stores and 7 Brew closed 2025 with 602 after adding a net of 281.

But from a sales standpoint, Black Rock is holding its own. CEO Mark Davis shared a couple of examples from the company’s relatively early growth phases. On a mature basis, a store in Castle Rock, Colorado (a targeted market for Black Rock after four Q1 openings), is posting $40,000 per week, or annualized $2.

080 million volume. It’s a location right by a Dutch Bros (the brand’s systemwide AUV is $2.16 million), Starbucks (AUVs of roughly $1.

9 million), and McDonald’s (AUVs a shade north of $4 million). That Black Rock is generating same-store sales up 15 percent, year-over-year, with transactions (traffic) growth of 7.4 percent.

And referencing last year’s class, Power and Elliot in Black Rock’s core market of Arizona is doing $35,000 a week, and growing, Davis said.

Store performance metrics

A Cedar Hill, Oregon, restaurant, surrounded by peers, recently opened at $26,000 per week. “And so, we feel that we’ve got that winning model with not only the drive-thru, but we’ve got the great lobbies and the engagement,” Davis said. “We’ve got the online ordering and third party. And so, I feel really, really strong about that.”

Black Rock beat Q1 Wall Street profit expectations with adjusted EBITDA climbing 24 percent to $7.4 million thanks, in part, to store-level margins of 29.6 percent. Revenue climbed 24 percent to $55.5 million.

The comp figure included a 5.8 percent lift in average check (3 percent price and 2.8 percent mix on incremental food attachment and lower discounting) and a 0.6 percent slide in traffic. Black Rock said it’s seen no material impact from McDonald’s recent Refreshers test in Colorado.

Why Black Rock’s traffic dipped (it was up 4.2 percent last quarter) was a development of its own worth tracking.

Naturally, Black Rock plans to deepen density in maturing areas as it lifts unit count. This means adding restaurants around existing high-volume stores. Davis said the brand is “thoughtfully rebalancing” demand to enhance experience, grow store presence, strengthen the chain’s market position, and better serve customers.

A dynamic, comparatively, where some sales transfer is going to take place as a portion of volume from current locations shifts to newer ones that opened nearby (3 to 5 miles).

That happened in Phoenix last quarter, creating a 160-basis-point headwind to same-store sales. David said, while not exactly something the company anticipated, it’s a function of strong underlying demand, not a cause for concern.

“New stores are performing well,” he said. “Traffic remains strong and overall market level sales are growing.”

And it’s reinforced the company’s “data-driven concentric circle development strategy,” Davis added.

“Although sales transfer modestly impacted same-store sales in the quarter, we’re encouraged by the long-term benefits and believe it reinforces our commitment to showing up for our guests in key markets, while strengthening demand and engagement as these markets mature.”

In other terms, it will take a bit for Black Rock to reap the benefits of packing markets with more restaurants. Upticks like better operations, service, and higher awareness.

Historically, although there aren’t a lot of case studies yet, locations near other Black Rocks “really build back” in the next 12–24 months, CFO Rodd Booth explained. The chain has another 10–12 planned for Phoenix this year and only about three to four are within that tight radius. So, the impact shouldn’t be significant in 2026.

“And for us at the moment,” Booth said, “really, Phoenix is the one market where we’re seeing that. I think the whitespace and all the other markets that we’re in don’t really give us any concern for a number of years.” Plus, not every location had that transfer of sales.

Growth strategy plans

Plainly, it’s something Black Rock will continue to manage and monitor.

In the meantime, the brand’s three strategic priorities it’s shared since filing for an IPO haven’t changed. Deepening customer engagement, strengthening a people-oriented culture, and expanding its market presence underpin the road ahead, Davis said.

He noted Black Rock has remained insulated from larger industry pressures for a few reasons. One being its balanced demographic exposure of 18–45 years old and a guest that skews slightly higher on the income bracket.

The company appreciates consistent trends across dayparts and days of the week. Traffic is steady morning through afternoon, with opportunity growing as the day progresses, Davis said. Sales are well balanced across weekdays and weekends without reliance on a single area.

And importantly, about 55 percent of Black Rock’s mix is coffee, a category, Davis said, traditionally resilient. The brand continues to grow its food (13 percent) and energy (25 percent) mix to drive check as well. Digital (app, online ordering, third party) sits at 17 percent, with an expected ramp up coming. “As a result, our unique positioning insulates us well amidst an uneven macro environment,” Davis said.

On the digital note, Black Rock exited Q1 with loyalty rewards participation rate at 66 percent. The program launched in June 2024. Davis said there’s been month-over-month growth even as the brand opens new locations.

Loyalty members spend about $1 more than non-users. They visit more often, too.

Davis said it’s become one of Black Rock’s most-effective channels for engaging guests and delivering targeted value. Over the past two years, the company has established a robust asset, he said, that provides deeper insights into preferences.

To that end, in Q1, Black Rock piloted segmented personalized offers across its loyalty base in Phoenix, Colorado, and Dallas. Davis said, when the chain moved from a single blanket offer to segmented incentives tailored by consumer type (such as coffee-forward rewards for coffee drinkers and fuel for energy fans), there was “meaningfully higher” engagement and spend.

In one case, he continued, personalized segmentation more than doubled engagement, drove a nearly 100 percent lift in incremental spend, and produced more than 3X incremental visits.

Lifecycle-based segmentation outperformed one-size-fits-all offers by delivering “significantly” higher visit lift and incremental spend efficiency.

The subsequent learning wasn’t complicated. “These insights reinforce that personalized value, not just more value, is what drives meaningful behavior change,” Davis said.

Expect Black Rock to deploy this data-driven segmentation strategy into additional markets going forward. Loyalty will serve as a lever to engage with guests and remind them why they choose Black Rock.

The company has increased its market spend 30 percent, year-over-year.

Additionally, it launched a programmatic campaign in Q4 that carried into the opening stretch of 2026. It was designed to extend reach beyond existing loyalty members while sustaining traffic through Black Rock’s guest base. Results, Davis said, exceeded expectations.

It saw the strongest lift in visits from non-customers and its highest frequency visitors, “demonstrating the campaign’s effectiveness in both attracting new guests and deepening engagement with our most valuable cohorts,” he said.

Building atop, Black Rock will launch a follow-on programmatic effort in Q2 across Phoenix, Dallas, and Colorado, with an ongoing focus on prospecting in markets and an added layer of retargeting in Phoenix (where the strongest cohort-level performance took shape).

As loyalty continues to influence repeat behavior, programmatic campaigns unlock stronger growth at the top of the funnel, Davis said. They expand awareness, reach new audiences, and bring first-time users into the brand. Amid growth, loyalty will play a vital role in enhancing guest experience while paid media and programmatic efforts focus on luring and converting new diners.

Competitive premise and menu

That brings Davis back to Black Rock’s competitive premise. With so many options in beverage, whether it’s McDonald’s, Starbucks, or an emerging player to factor in, the brand wants to amplify its premium, customized approach, and the engaged and authentic service model it fosters. Currently, every Black Rock has a drive-thru and about 75 percent include lobbies. Drive-thru mixes 72 percent of sales. The brand touts a 90-second service standard and 90 percent of restaurants close by 7 p.m.

Black Rock’s first seasonal menu window of the year saw the brand’s product mix of core offerings increase more than 60 percent versus last year. There was particular strength with indulgent-forward beverages such as the Peacan Pie Blondie, Prickly Pear Fuel, and Strawberry Blondie. The latter, with Sweetheart Cold Foam, was especially impactful, Davis said. It performed well as a feature and also drove incremental attachment as guests tacked on the foam across a wide range of drinks.

The customization behavior was highly social, too, with guests posting creations, giving Black Rock further reason to develop sharable menu items.

Moreover, the chain continued to lean into an influencer angle to get the most out of launches. Davis said the brand is encouraged by early traction, namely on discovery-driven platforms like TikTok.

And it’s learning. A recent Desert Springs campaign delivered positive engagement and audience feedback from a content plus creator mix. There have been benefits from a regionalized strategy that partners with influencers in specific markets as well. Showing up more authentically at the local level while hiking brand visibility and organic social momentum is a formula Black Rock will nurture, Davis said.

Starting in Q1, influencer partnership will align with summer seasonal periods. “Overall, we view micro influencers as a powerful storytelling channel that brings the brand to life through real voices,” he said.

With food, Egg Bites have gained steadily and propelled attachment and check growth, year-over-year. More food options are slated for the second half of 2026.

Black Rock will also launch a protein test early March in Phoenix, including a protein-boosted milk for dairy-based drinks, boosts for shakes and smoothies, and protein cold foam as customizable add-ons.

Pilots thus far, Davis said, have increased attachment and ticket, especially with cold foam, where protein is creating differentiated entry points with energy. Being able to add to an energy drink “is a capability that remains unique in the category,” Davis said.

Protein is performing well in core beverages like lattes and signature drinks, too. Satisfaction scores have been high and there’s evidence this represents both a natural extension of Black Rock’s offerings and one that doesn’t sacrifice flavor or experience.

In turn, the brand expanded tests into additional markets and projects a full system rollout in April.

Black Rock’s seasonal dirty soda partnership with OLIPOP was an important test-and-learn opportunity, Davis added. Guests who tried it rated it highly and said it fit into the broader trend. Black Rock observed strength in the afternoon daypart (a future targeted area of opportunity).

But Davis said the brand’s near-term focus will tick toward scaling protein while it continues to gather insights and refine the OLIPOP offering. There’s a recipe refresh planned for Q1, along with barista-driven variations Davis believes will broaden appeal, encourage repeat trial, and inform future innovation.

The other, often-illustrated corner of guest experience for Black Rock is the people factor. The brand since inception has taken a professional development track to its culture growth (more on that here). Davis said team member turnover hit an all-time low in Q1, ending at about 54 percent. It’s been driven by a learning management system that spread in 2025, where Black Rock provides onboarding and training support to encourage greater new hire confidence.

Stronger onboarding and teaching, Davis said, led to higher retention. And keeping store-level turnover well under industry averages (generally more than 100 percent in QSR) has helped restaurants deliver against standard. Davis credited Black Rock’s efforts to focus on business acumen and leadership skills.

Also, it’s provided management confidence in growth thanks to a pipeline of leaders who can execute store-opening plans.

“Importantly,” Davis said, “the progress we’re seeing in succession planning and internal advancement gives us conviction that we can scale new store growth with our strongest leaders stepping up to drive execution and foster our people-oriented culture across our newest markets.”

In this way, Black Rock bears similarities to Dutch Bros, which last quarter said it had nearly 500 people in the wings ready to support future development.

Going forward, Black Rock opened five of its Q1 openings during the last week of the quarter and plans to hit its commitment of a minimum of 10 in Q2 (en route to 36 this year).

On average, new Black Rock restaurants post $1.1 million AUVs by 18 months, with incremental growth compounding thereafter.

Davis said ongoing expansion enabled the company to refine systems and strengthen cross-functional coordination as it prepares for larger targets. The systemwide AUV today is $1.3 million. It expects to push that upward in time.

Black Rock is also shifting toward more reverse build-to-suit leases in the near-term as it aims for greater speed to market. And its dual-format foundational (drive-thru plus lobbies) will continue to encourage speed and connection and serve a boarder demographic.

The horizon vision: 1,000 units by 2035.

“While we are confident in our ability to double our footprint within our existing markets, we have also started evaluating new markets with potential new market entries in 2027 and 2028,” Davis said. “I’m incredibly optimistic about the path in front of us and bringing Black Rock to more guests across the country.”