QSR pizza is stealing share from the freezer aisle

The QSR pizza category may have just gotten a much-needed win after a string of bad news, including negative sales in 2025 and hundreds of location closures among the largest brands like Papa Johns, Pizza Hut, and Papa Murphy’s, as well as fast-casual brands like Pieology, MOD, and Blaze.

New data from Numerator shows that QSR pizza has taken some share from at-home pizza in the $37 billion market. The at-home pizza market includes frozen, prepared, and homemade options.

QSR pizza now accounts for 45% of total pizza spending, which is a 3.1% increase compared to 2019. Spend-per-restaurant visit has increased 41% in that same timeframe.

Meanwhile, out of that $37 billion, the grocery channel generates $7.4 billion in at-home pizza sales versus $4.2 billion at mass retailers for less than $11.5 billion total, or about 31%.

Domino’s holds the largest share of QSR pizza spending, followed by Little Caesars and Pizza Hut, according to Numerator. During Domino’s third quarter earnings call earlier this month, CEO Joe Jordan said the company continues to drive order count and gain share within the category.

That said, consumer loyalty to pizza is shaky at best. Numerator data shows that nearly nine in 10 buyers are willing to switch formats, meaning the battle for consumer spending comes down to convenience, value, and occasion. Convenience is the biggest driver, with more than three in five consumers choosing pizza to avoid cooking or cleaning up, which could perhaps explain Papa Murphy’s recent struggles, as the take-and-bake chain continues to retrench and is more than 20% smaller than it was in 2020.

Notably, frozen pizza wins on busy weeknights, while QSR pizza is more closely tied to weekend occasions and social gatherings for groups. This is where Domino’s is trying to gain some traction with its new individual, Detroit-style Domino offering.

“The majority of QSR occasions are actually group occasions. Group occasions where consumers are individually choosing their food. Those were not occasions where pizza could compete, but where we believe we can compete (with the Domino),” Jordan told analysts earlier this month. “We're going to understand where we can compete as a brand, both on the emotional and the functional needs that the consumer has.”

Gen Z is also throwing a wrench into traditional occasions. More than half of Baby Boomer consumers return to the same pizza brands or restaurants for their fix, for example, while Gen Z consumers are nearly twice as likely to explore different options. They’re also more likely to purchase frozen pizza for speedy late-night meals, which could turn this data on its head in a few years.

Until then, it only paints part of a broader picture of a dynamic category that has come back down to earth following its pandemic highs when families were ordering pizza while hunkered down at home. This data also doesn’t contend for the growing threat coming from convenience stores, including Casey’s General Store, which considers itself to be the fifth largest pizza chain in the country. A recent Bank of America report, for example, shows that Casey’s is taking share from Pizza Hut, while 7-Eleven is focusing more of its attention to foodservice upgrades. And yes, that includes its pizza.

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